It’s that time of year again when the Oscar race hits full throttle and the studios, actors, actresses, directors and producers get into lobby mode. Late-night talk show couches are reserved for the cream of the A-list crop, designers grapple to dress the starlets and Hollywood is abuzz with pre-award season jitters. Cue my film obsession, and my excitement in being able to get this list to press for the December issue of UP. It’s been a work in progress, and I’ll be updating the list in these top categories, and more, as the slew of this year’s Oscar-worthy films hit the theatres this awards season.
First up, my favourite category, the Best Actress. In a great year for ‘senior’ leading ladies in Hollywood, stalwarts Lily Tomlin, Maggie Smith, Charlotte Rampling and Blythe Danner, average out at 74 years old. On the flipside, staple starlets Brie Larson, Jennifer Lawrence, Carey Mulligan, and Saoirse Ronan have a collective average age of 25. That makes a 50 year difference in the two top contender groups for the very hotly coveted Best Actress statuette this year. And then of course, slap bang in the middle is the formidable Cate Blanchett. Blanchett, who nabbed her second Oscar two years ago in Woody Allen’s “Blue Jasmine” is almost a surefire bet for a nom this year with leading roles in not one, but two of this year’s oscar hopefuls - “Carol” and “Truth” (you can’t be nominated twice in the same category in the same year.) Other hopefuls include Smith, who takes a leading role in “The Lady in the Van” and reaching the twilight of her career, could garner a last hopeful vote from the Academy. Lawrence has seen a lot of love from the Academy in past years and “Joy” is fast losing heat. That leaves the rest of the race pretty open to interpretation.
I’m betting on Blanchett, Smith, and the other three actresses under 30. Unfortunately it looks pretty bleak on the diversity front this year, but 2017 should see Lupita Nyong’o hit the list with her role in Mira Nair’s ‘Queen of Katwe’ looking to hit theatres next Autumn. Fingers X’d.
Predictions:
Cate Blanchett, “Carol”
Brie Larson, “Room”
Maggie Smith, “The Lady in the Van”
Saoirse Ronan, “Brooklyn”
Charlotte Rampling, “45 Years”
Hopefuls: Jennifer Lawrence ‘Joy’,Carey Mulligan ‘Suffragette’,Cate Blanchett, “Truth”,Blythe Danner “I’ll See You In My Dreams”
As it is every year, it’s a pretty tight race for the leading gents this year, and the Best Actor category has some nice surprises in store this year. Not surprising is Eddie Redmayne in his role as transgender artist Lili Elbe in “The Danish Girl” who will almost certainly get the nom - but probably lose out on the win following his win this year. The Academy isn’t often generous back to back, a feat only ever accomplished twice in the history of the awards by legend Spencer Tracy, and most recently Tom Hanks (Philadelphia, 1993 and Forrest Gump, 1994). Will Leonardo DiCaprio finally take the gong? He has been (not so quietly) waiting in the sidelines since his first nom in 1993 for “What’s Eating Gilbert Grape?” His performance in “The Revenant” has already been lauded by critics and 2016 could see him finally convert a sixth nomination into Oscar gold.
Michael Fassbender, Johnny Depp, Will Smith, Tom Hanks and Matt Damon have all got strong notices for “Steve Jobs,” “Black Mass,” “Concussion,” “Bridge of Spies,” and “The Martian” (the academy love a man in space), but there’s a nice surprise this year from Michael B. Jordan’s much-talked-about take in “Creed” - also checking the boxes for a diversity tick on the Academy list.
Predictions:
Eddie Redmayne, “The Danish Girl”
Matt Damon, “The Martian”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Revenant”
Michael Fassbender, “Steve Jobs”
Michael B. Jordan, “Creed”
Hopefuls: Johnny Depp“Black Mass”, Michael Caine,“Youth” ,Will Smith“Concussion”, Tom Hanks “Bridge of pies”
Early buzz has Tom McCarthy’s “Spotlight” front-running in a tight Best Picture race, but there’s still a way to go. The DiCaprio led “The Revenant” looks a safe bet, but Director González Iñárritu won this year for Birdman so a twofer is unlikely. Can he really win back-to-back best picture prizes? Probably not. Climbing the ranks quickly are Ryan Coogler’s “Creed”, Steven Spielberg’s “Bridge of Spies” which opened last week to rave reviews, as well as Todd Haynes’ “Carol” which plays host to a powerhouse performance from Cate Blanchett (again), and John Crowley’s “Brooklyn”, the big sweeping epic of the year. Early front-runners but fast falling in favour are Danny Boyle’s “Steve Jobs”, and Lenny Abrahamson’s “Room” but with space for 10 noms, they could still easily make the list.
Predictions:
“Bridge of Spies” (Disney)
“Creed” (Warner Bros)
“Carol” (The Weinstein Company)
“Inside Out” (Disney)
“Brooklyn” (Fox Searchlight)
“Room” (A24)
“Joy” (20th Century Fox
“Spotlight” (Open Road)
“The Revenant” (20th Century Fox)
“The Martian” (20th Century Fox)
Now the task of whittling down the top 10 into the five coveted slots. The Best Director category is always the hardest to predict, and there’s no guarantee that a director who doesn’t have a best picture nod is not still viable for a nomination in this category, but since it’s early days, and there are still a whole host of films still waiting for a release, I’m going to whittle down the 10 best picture noms to five best directors. Here are my picks.
Predictions:
Alejandro González Iñárritu, “The Revenant”
Ridley Scott, “The Martian”
David O. Russell, “Joy”
Ryan Coogler, “Creed”
Tom McCarthy, “Spotlight”
It’s too early to get stuck in to the best Supporting Actor and Actress noms at this point, but there are some front-runners already. The Oscars are obsessed with comeback stories, and following a critically lauded performance in “Creed,” Sylvester Stallone could see a surprising return to the critical spotlight. It’s his seventh run at playing Rocky Balboa, and right now it’s looking like a TKO in his favour. Idris Elba is also looking pretty strong in his role in “Beasts of No Nation,” as well as whispers that Harvey Keitel and Ben Kingsley will take noms for their respective roles in “Spotlight”.
Keep checking back here to stay up to date on all the latest oscar buzz.
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